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SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH

TITLE

Transformation of Educational Strategies of School Graduates: Preferences for Secondary Vocational or Higher Education (Comparative Analysis of 2018/2024)

Vladimir S. Polovinko, Igor V. Dinner

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RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL I21, J24, R23

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_1_2_26_38

AUTHORS

Vladimir S. Polovinko

Dostoevsky Omsk State University, Omsk, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6858-045X

SPIN-code: 8454-2897

ResearcherID: A-4317-2017

Scopus Author ID: 56728354400

Igor V. Dinner

Dostoevsky Omsk State University, Omsk, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0269-4443

SPIN-code: 4692-3211

FOR CITATION

Polovinko V.S., Dinner I.V. Transformation of Educational Strategies of School Graduates: Preferences for Secondary Vocational or Higher Education (Comparative Analysis of 2018/2024). Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2026;22(1):26–38. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_1_2_26_38 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes the transformation of educational strategies of upper-secondary leavers regarding the choice between higher education and secondary vocational education in contemporary Russia. The study aims to identify shifts in educational preferences and to assess the influence of socio-demographic and academic factors on the formation and differentiation of educational trajectories. The research hypothesis assumes that in 2018–2024 educational strategies underwent a qualitative transformation, characterized by the increasing institutional role of secondary vocational education, the inversion of territorial effects, and the strengthening of academic achievement as a key selective filter for access to higher education. The methodological framework is based on an interdisciplinary approach integrating human capital theory, economics of education, and youth sociology. Educational choice is interpreted as the outcome of rational cost–benefit considerations, institutional constraints, and socio-territorial conditions shaping individual decision-making. The study applies descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, and binary logistic regression, including interaction models and scenario-based probability estimates. The empirical base includes two large-scale surveys of students in grades 9–11 in the Omsk region conducted in 2018 and 2024, with a total sample exceeding 26,000 respondents. The results demonstrate a stable shift toward secondary vocational education, increased selectivity of higher education, and the consolidation of educational inequality already at the stage of completing lower secondary school. The study identified an inversion of territorial effects, a strengthening of the selective role of academic achievement, and a reduced significance of gender differences. It is shown that secondary vocational education is no longer a secondary strategy and is increasingly formed as an institutionally and economically rational choice. The findings indicate growing educational inequality and the consolidation of a selective model of access to higher education already at the stage of completing lower secondary school.

KEYWORDS

educational strategies, school graduates, higher education, secondary vocational education, professional self-determination, educational inequality, territorial differences, human capital, labor market

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Vladimir S. Polovinko

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Regional Economics and Human Resource Management, Faculty of Economics, Psychology, and Management, Dostoevsky Omsk State University.

Igor V. Dinner

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Regional Economics and Human Resource Management, Faculty of Economics, Psychology, and Management, Dostoevsky Omsk State University.

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