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SECTION:

ECONOMIC RESEARCH

TITLE:

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Uncertainty on Consumer Markets in Russian Regions

Gulnara F. Romashkina, Maksim R. Zanchuk

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RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL D12, E21, G41

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_3_2_380_391

AUTHORS

Gulnara F. Romashkina

Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7764-5566

SPIN-code: 7764-5566

ResearcherID: O-7221-2017

Scopus Author ID: 57219916692

Maksim R. Zanchuk

Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9912-1416

SPIN-code: 9904-4280

FOR CITATION

Romashkina G.F., Zanchuk M.R. Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Uncertainty on Consumer Markets in Russian Regions. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2026;22(3):380–391. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_3_2_380_391 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

The last decade has been characterized by an increasing role of fundamental uncertainty in the Russian economy, related to both external and internal factors. The consumer behaviour across Russian regions, on the one hand, is influenced by standard factors, describing the macroeconomic situation, while on the other hand, it is exposed to panic responses and information asymmetry. The purpose of this article is to conduct a study of the impact of perceived fundamental uncertainty on consumer behavior using the theoretical developments of the Keynesian and post-Keynesian scientific traditions, using data from Russian regions. The empirical analysis is based on regional data from the Russian state statistics for the period from 2000 to 2024. The main method of analysis is a stepwise regression with random effects, where the dependent variable is the average propensity to consume. In the study, various nonlinear models were tested to estimate the possibilities of considering uncertainty. The level of uncertainty was assessed on an information uncertainty index, which was calculated based on the mentions of the term «uncertainty» in newspapers. The rest of the parameters formed a standard set of macroeconomic indicators. The main result of the study was the confirmation of a statistically significant positive connection between news uncertainty and the average propensity to consume. It was concluded that increased uncertainty provokes panic consumption, reflecting an increased propensity to consume while maintaining the significance of standard macroeconomic parameters (GRP per capita, real income and unemployment rate). Possibilities for nonlinear modeling were revealed in describing consumer behavior using the example of Russian regions. There were presented the examples of models that describe the specificity of Russian regions more adequately. Highly significant regional differences were revealed, reflecting the participation of hidden regional factors in the formation of consumer behavior. Thus, the research has confirmed the heuristic possibilities of post-Keynesian theory in describing the dynamics of consumer behavior on empirical data.

KEYWORDS

consumer behavior, propensity, uncertainty, post-Keynesianism, expectations, panel data

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Gulnara F. Romashkina

Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Tyumen State University.

Maksim R. Zanchuk

Postgraduate Student, Tyumen State University.

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