SECTION:
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
TITLE
Regional Trends in the Prevalence of Informal Employment in Russia
Alexander L. Safonov, Daria V. Nekipelova
RAR (Research Article Report)
JEL O17
https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_5_256_268
AUTHORS
Alexander L. Safonov
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail:
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3577-5490
SPIN-code: 7192-4121
ResearcherID: PKS-0017-2026
Daria V. Nekipelova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
E-mail:
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8891-009X
SPIN-code: 8952-9510
FOR CITATION
Safonov A.L., Nekipelova D.V. Regional Trends in the Prevalence of Informal Employment in Russia. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2026;22(2):256–268. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_5_256_268 (In Russ.)
ABSTRACT
The aim of the study is to identify regional patterns and trends in the prevalence of informal employment in Russia. The theoretical framework comprises the productive and legalist approaches of the International Labour Organization, the concept of precarisation of labour relations, and the theory of «digital organised informality». The methodological basis includes a balance approach to estimating informal employment (using data from the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, EMISS) as the difference between the total number of employed persons in the economy and the average number of employees in organisations, as well as correlation analysis (Pearson’s coefficient) to identify relationships with the unemployment rate and the rate of legalisation of the self-employed. It has been established that, following the post-pandemic decline in 2020, the recovery dynamics led to an absolute maximum of 30 million informally employed by 2023–2024, indicating the consolidation of the informal sector as a systemic element of the economy. Correlation analysis confirmed its compensatory function: the predominance of a negative relationship with the unemployment rate (76 regions) points to its role as a labour market buffer. A stable positive correlation was identified between the number of informally employed and the number of legalised self-employed individuals (78 regions, with coefficients ranging from 0.96 to 1.00), demonstrating an «illumination» effect rather than the substitution of informality. Profound regional differentiation was recorded, ranging from the dominance of informal employment in the republics of the North Caucasus to minimal values in the Arctic territories. The necessity of transitioning from a «suppression» policy to an «embedding» policy for new forms of employment into the system of social and labour guarantees is substantiated. The findings can be used to adjust regional employment policies.
KEYWORDS
informal employment, precarization of labor, platform employment, self-employment, freelancing, regions of RF, unemployment
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The article was prepared based on research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Alexander L. Safonov
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Research Worker, the Institute of Regional Economics and Interbudgetary Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Daria V. Nekipelova
PhD in Economics, Senior Research Worker, the Institute of Regional Economics and Interbudgetary Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
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