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DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

Demographic Challenges or Why the Demographic Policy of the Far East does not Lead to the Desired Result

Yury A. Avdeev, Valentina L. Ushakova

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ИНДЕКСЫ СТАТЬИ

DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_1_1_9_24

EDN: EBFBEG

AUTHORS

Yury A. Avdeev

Pacific Geographical Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: 0000 -0003-0379-9914

Author ID: 718435

Valentina L. Ushakova

Pacific Geographical Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the RAS, Vladivostok, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: 0000 -0002-4916-3973

Author ID: 75981

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The work was executed within the state assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (theme "Spatial development of different territorial and aqua-territorial structures of economy and population settlement of Pacific Russia with consideration of geographical and geopolitical factors and their relations at different district levels in North-East Asia, (№ 122020900189-0).

FOR CITATION

Avdeev A.Yu., Ushakova V.L. Demographic Challenges or Why the Demographic Policy of the Far East does not Lead to the Desired Result. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023. Vol. 19. No 1. P. 9–24. DOI 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_1_1_9_24 EDN EBFBEG

ABSTRACT

The article summarizes the results of a two-year discussion around the topic: how to make the Far East attractive, and stop the outflow of population from the region. The approaches and proposals are analyzed in the articles published on the pages of the journal "Standard of Living of the Population in the Regions of Russia", in which migration issues are discussed mainly, a critical assessment of some provisions in them is given. An analysis of the demographic policy in the Far East, aimed at curbing the outflow of the population by 2020, and increasing the number in 2025, was carried out. It is shown that the achievement of the planned indicators of the Concept is hindered by the rate on population reproduction: stimulation of the birth rate, reduction of mortality, increase in life expectancy. The main reason was revealed: the mass outflow of the population in the 90s deformed the demographic structure, significantly reducing the population of fertile ages, as well as the child population. Therefore, material incentives are assessed as an ineffective way to ensure the achievement of the goal. The results of the analysis of the main demographic processes in the Far East, their regional specifics, indicate that it is unlikely that it will be possible to overcome the steady trend of population decline until the middle of the century. Arguments are given proving that the economic specialization of the macro-region that has developed over the previous decades with a predominance of resource-export industries is the main reason that pushes the population, contributing to the outflow of the population. A fundamentally important conclusion of the article is the need to ensure absolute population growth, the transition from the installation of "savings" to the task of "multiplying" the people. And it is proposed to consider the Far East as a pilot project in solving this national problem.

KEYWORDS

Far East, demography, migration, population outflow, demographic policy, development, system approach, targeted planning

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Yury A. Avdeev

PhD in Economics, Leading Researcher, laboratory social and medical geography, Pacific Geographical Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Valentina L. Ushakova

Researcher, laboratory social and medical geography, Pacific Geographical Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

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The article was submitted 14.12.2022.

Аccepted for publication 01.02.2023.