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DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

Demographic Potential: Essence, Structure and Main Factors

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

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INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326

EDN: CQKRYK

AUTHOR

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8937-3166   

РИНЦ AuthorID: 42430

WoS ReseacherID: B-8924-2018

Author ID Scopus: 39362389200

FOR CITATION

Rybakovskii O.L. Demographic potential: essence, structure and main factors. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023;19(3):319–326. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to reveal the essence of the concept of "demographic potential", to give it an exhaustive definition, to reveal its structure and to identify the main factors affecting it. After analyzing the history of the term "demographic potential" and examining modern works on this topic, the author came to the following conclusions. Demographic potential is a generalizing term that includes resources and/or current and future opportunities and/or additional reserves for the development of demographic processes taking place in a particular territory, as well as (in the case of population migration) and beyond, in the regions associated with migration. Demographic resources are the number and demographic structure of the population of the territory. Demographic opportunities are the levels of intensity of the territory's demographic processes and their demographic consequences, such as changes in demographic structures. Demographic reserves are prospective possible deviations of the intensity levels of demographic processes of the territory and their expected demographic consequences from "promising inert" trends – under the influence of demographic policy measures, external and internal factors. Depending on what can be invested in the concept of "demographic potential", demographic resources, demographic opportunities or demographic reserves, it can be represented as: one of three components; two out of three; all three. In the latter case, there will be a de facto full analysis of the demographic situation with forecasts. The demographic potential includes two parts – reproductive and migration potentials, and four components. If the demographic potential is considered as opportunities and/or reserves of demographic processes, then these components are the potential for changes in the intensity of the age-related birth rate of the population, the potential for changes in the intensity of mortality of the population in the gender and age context, the potential for changes in the intensity of permanent arrivals and departures in the geographical context. At the end of the article, the main factors of all components of the demographic potential are given.

KEYWORDS

demographic potential, demographic resources, opportunities and reserves, reproductive potential, migration potential, demographic structures of the population, components and factors of demographic potential

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

Doctor of Economics, Head of the Laboratory of N.V. Rimashevskaya Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISEPS FCTAS RAS); Chief Researcher at the Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDI FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia

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The article was submitted 23.05.2023; approved after reviewing 02.07.2023; accepted for publication 15.08.2023.