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TITLE

Methodological Approach to Assessing Factor Influence on Fertilityin Russia

Olga A. Kozlova, Maria N. Makarova, Vladimir N. Arkhangel'skii

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RAR (Research Article Report)

https://doi.org/1999-9836_2024_20_1_7_76_90

EDN HUISTQ

AUTHORS

Olga A. Kozlova

Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0448-3519

SPIN-code:  8102-7666

РИНЦ Author ID: 148806

ReseacherID: M-4659-2016

Maria N. Makarova

Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia

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ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6144-6178

SPIN-code:  8630-5215

РИНЦ Author ID: 625550

ReseacherID: AAR-5183-2020

Vladimir N. Arkhangel'skii

Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Centre for Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, Kazan, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7091-9632

SPIN-code:  1472-3201

РИНЦ Author ID: 77068

ReseacherID: T-4845-2017

FOR CITATION

Kozlova O.A., Makarova M.N., Arkhangelskiy V.N. Methodological Approach to Assessing Factor Influence on Fertility in Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(1):76–90. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_1_7_76_90 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

The relevance of the study is due to the need to assess the impact of socio-economic factors on the birth rate in Russia. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and to test the methodological tools for assessing the contribution of the most important factors to the fertility rates. We have put forward a hypothesis about the complex influence of both objective socio-economic factors and their subjective assessments by the population, which determines both positive and negative effects, characterized by different forces of influence on fertility. As targets in this study, the total fertility rate for 2021 is used both in general and by the order of births and the average number of children born in 40-44-year-olds according to the 2020 population census, which was actually conducted in 2021, which allows us to talk about the comparability of the data used.

The novelty of the study evolves the use of an integrated approach consisting in the assessment of both objective and subjective factor effects on reproductive behavior and fertility. To analyze the socio-economic factor impact on fertility, official Rosstat data for 85 Russian regions for 2021 were used. A subjective assessment of the factorial effect on fertility was carried out using micro-data from a Comprehensive observation of the living conditions of the population conducted by Rosstat in 2022. Another factor indicator was the need for children, which largely regulates reproductive behavior. The methodological tools of the study is based on the use of machine learning and data mining methods, which made it possible to identify the share of each of the statistically significant factors in the overall picture of factorial influence on target indicators. The obtained results of the study indicate the different strength of the factor influence on fertility in general and the order of births, which determines the need for monitoring and assessing the degree of factor influence in the development and adjustment of state programs to stimulate fertility.

 

KEYWORDS

regions of Russia, standard of living, total fertility rate, factorial influence, partial contribution, subjective estimates, machine learning methods, correlation and regression analysis

AUTHORS BIOGRAFY

Olga A. Kozlova

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Center for Research on Socio-Economic Dynamics of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Mariya N. Makarova

PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher at the Center for Research on Socio-Economic Dynamics of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Vladimir N. Arkhangel'skii

PhD in Economics, Head of the Fertility and Reproductive Behavior Department of the Institute for Demographic Research - Branch of the Federal Centre for Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the Population Reproduction and Demographic Policy Sector of the Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography of the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leading Researcher at the Family and Demography Center of the Tatarstan Academy of Sciences

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The article was submitted 27.08.2023; approved after reviewing 19.09.2023; accepted for publication 21.03.2024.