Uncategorised Hits: 55

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE

The Eurasian Path of Demographic Development in Russia as a Challenge to the Global Liberal Model of Demographic Transition

Vladimir A. Iontsev, Yuliya A. Uzkaya

Размер файла597-611
 Размер файла  2.828 MB Размер файла Full text

 

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL J11
https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611

AUTHORS

Vladimir A. Iontsev

Higher School of Modern Social Sciences Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9461-3542

SPIN-code: 3115-0697

RSCI Author ID: 72295

Yuliya A. Uzkaya

Higher School of Modern Social Sciences Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5473-1197

SPIN-code: 5056-0800

RSCI Author ID: 718355

For citation

Iontsev V.A., Uzkaya Yu.A. The Eurasian Path of Demographic Development in Russia as a Challenge to the Global Liberal Model of Demographic Transition.  Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(4):597–611. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_4_9_597_611 (In Russ.)

Abstract

The article deals with one of the most important issues of the demographic future of Russia. Russia is facing an acute issue of choosing the path of demographic development. And considering that for more than thirty years Russia has actually been following the modern Western path of demographic development, the basic model of which is the globally liberal model of demographic transition, the question arises: to what extent does this path take into account Russia's national interests? In our opinion, this path of demographic development leads to a dead end, leads, in fact, to the disappearance of the Russian population. And how can it be otherwise if the main model of a family is a family with one child, or without one at all. This model is well described in the concept of the second demographic transition. Based on the latter, the idea of the Eurasian path of demographic development appeared. The article reveals in sufficient detail the ideas of Eurasianism, modern neo-Eurasianism, while, according to some Russian scientists, the idea of a new Eurasianism can be considered as a national idea that would contribute to the unity and rise of sovereign Russia in "conditions of harsh cultural and civilizational expansion of the West." The paper proves that only by following the Eurasian path of demographic development, Russia will be able to successfully get out of a difficult demographic situation, which is characterized by the concept of "demographic crisis", a characteristic and significant feature of which are negative qualitative demographic changes. Especially such kind of tendencies we can observe among young people. The article briefly reveals the role of international migration, which can contribute to overcoming a difficult demographic situation, provided that a competent migration policy is carried out. This policy should take into account not only the interests of big capital, but also the interests of the Russian population and the regional interests of Russia. Among the migrants arriving in Russia, the most significant group, both demographically and economically, may be Old Believers living mainly in the far abroad. And in the conclusion of the article, proposals are made to improve the current demographic situation in Russia. The results of the study can be used in the process of improving demographic and migration policies conducted in Russia.

 

Keywords

Eurasianism, neo-Eurasianism, the Eurasian way of demographic development, the globally liberal model of demographic transition, the concept of the second demographic transition, demographic crisis, depopulation, traditional demographic values, international migration

AUTHORS BIOGRAFY

Vladimir A. Iontsev - Doctor of Economics, emeritus professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Head of the Department of Demography, Higher School of Modern Social Sciences Lomonosov Moscow State University

Yuliya A. Uzkaya – PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Demography, Deputy Director for Academic Affairs, Higher School of Modern Social Sciences Lomonosov Moscow State University

References

  1. Klupt M.A. Teoriya Demograficheskogo Razvitiya. Obshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost'=Social Sciences and Contemporary World. 2005;(2):139-149. (In Russ.)
  2. Rostovskaya T.K., Sitkovskii A.M. Demographic development resources: On the unification of concepts in demographic research. Ekonomicheskie i social'nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2024;17(1):178–200. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2024.1.91.10 (In Russ.)
  3. Averin A.N. Gosudarstvennoe Regulirovanie Demograficheskih i Migracionnyh Processov v Rossijskoj Federacii. Moscow: Prospekt. 2022. 128 p. ISBN 978-5-392-36591-3 (In Russ.)
  4. Uzkaya Y.A. Mezhdunarodnaya Migraciya Naseleniya v Teorii i Koncepciyah Demograficheskogo Perekhoda. Moscow: MAKS Press. 2018. 288 p. ISBN 978-5-317-06004-6 (In Russ.)
  5. Vishnevskii A.G. Demograficheskij Krizis v Rossii. June 2009. IFRI. Centr Rossiya-NNG. 31 p. (In Russ.)
  6. Vishnevskii A.G. Serp i Rubl': Konservativnaya Modernizaciya v SSSR. Moscow: Izdatel'skii dom Vysshei shkoly ehkonomiki. 2010. 430 p. ISBN 978-5-7598-0760-5 (In Russ.)
  7. Iontsev V.A., Aleshkovskii I.A. Demograficheskij Faktor v Razvitii Sovremennoj Rossii. In Demograficheskie perspektivy Rossii; Ed. by G.V. Osipov, S.V. Ryazantsev. Moscow: Ekon-Inform. 2008. 906 p. (In Russ.)
  8. Demograficheskij Enciklopedicheskij Slovar'. Ed. by D.I. Valentei. Moscow: Sovetskaya ehntsiklopediya. 1985. 608 p. (In Russ.)
  9. Sovremennaya Demografiya. Ed. by A.Ya. Kvashi, V.A. Iontseva. Moscow: Izdatel'stvo Moskovskogo universiteta. 1995. 246 p. (In Russ.)
  10. Ryazantsev S.V. (ex. ed.), Rostovskaya T.K., et al. Demographic well-being of Russia. National demographic report. FNISC RAS. Moscow: ITD Perspektiva. 2022. 108 p. ISBN 978-5-88045-557-7 https://doi.org/10.19181/monogr.978-5-88045-557-7.2022 (In Russ.)
  11. Rybal'chenko S.I. (ex. ed.), Korotaev A.V., Efremov I.A., et al. Demografiya 2030. Kak Obespechit' Ustojchivyj Rost Naseleniya Rossijskoj Federacii. Special'nyj Doklad Obshchestvennoj Palaty Rossijskoj Federacii. OPRF. Moscow: Pacholi Konsalting, 2023. 86 ISBN 978-5-6050462-0-2 (In Russ.)
  12. Gosudarstvennaya Politika Vyvoda Rossii iz Demograficheskogo Krizisa. Ed. by S.S. Sulakshina. Iss. 2. Moscow: Ehkonomika. 2007. 888 p. ISBN 978-5-91290-007-5 (In Russ.)
  13. Demograficheskaya Enciklopediya. Ed. by A.A. Tkachenko. Moscow: Enciklopediya. 2013. 944 p. ISBN 978-5-94802-051-8 (In Russ.)
  14. Korolenko A.V. Investigation of the modern demographic crisis in Russia: approaches and estimates. Voprosy territorial'nogo razvitiya=Territorial development issues. 2014;(10(20)):1-14. (In Russ.)
  15. RBK. Moscow: Izdatel'skii dom RBK. 2020;(1-2). (In Russ.)
  16. Coleman D. Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: a third demographic transition. Population and Development Review. 2006;32(3);401-446
  17. Vishnevsky A. Herbert Spencer: the unrecognized father of the theory of demographic transition Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review. 2019;6(1):6-31. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v6i1.9110 (In Russ.)
  18. Notestein F.W. Population – the long In Food for the World; Ed. by T. Schultz. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1945:37-57.
  19. Vishnevsky A.G. Demographic revolution changes the reproductive change of the Homo sapiens species. Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review. 2014;1(1):6-33. (In Russ.)
  20. Lesthaeghe R., Kaa D. J. van de. Twee Demografische Transities? In Bevolking Groei en Krimp. Deventer. 1986:9-24.
  21. Van de Kaa D.J. Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin. Washington: The Population Reference Bureau. 1987;42(1):1-59.
  22. Lesthaeghe R. The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation. In K. Oppenheim Mason et A-M. Jensen, Editors, Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford, 1995: Clarendon.
  23. B'yukenen P. Smert' Zapada. Moscow: AST, Terra Fantastica. 2004. 444 p. (In Russ.)
  24. Strugatskii A.N., Strugatskii B.N. Hishchnye Veshchi Veka: [Fantasticheskii Roman]. Moscow: AST, 2016. 224 p. (In Russ.)
  25. Demin V.N. Tainy Evrazii. Seriya: Slavyane i Rus. Moscow: Veche. 2012. 368 p. ISBN 978-5-9533-6006-7 (In Russ.)
  26. Gumilev L.N. Ritmy Evrazii: Epohi i Civilizacii. Moscow: Progress: Firma Pangeya. 1993. 575 p. ISBN 5-88621-004-0 (In Russ.)
  27. Orlik I.I. Evrazijskaya Ideya: Vozniknovenie i Evolyuciya. Vestnik RUDN. Seriya: Vseobshchaya istoriya= RUDN JOURNAL OF WORLD HISTORY. 2010;(4). (In Russ.)
  28. Gumilev L.N. Tri Glavnyh Proizvedeniya o Evrazii: Ot Rusi k Rossii. Drevnie tyurki. Tysyacheletie Vokrug Kaspiya. Moscow: Eksmo. 2024. 992 p. ISBN 978-5-04-173333-9 (In Russ.)
  29. Petrovskii V., Titarenko M. O neoevraziiskoi identichnosti Rossii. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn'=International Affairs. 2016;(4). (In Russ.)
  30. Lomonosov M.V. O Sohranenii i Razmnozhenii Rossijskogo Naroda. In Izbrannye proizvedeniya v 2 t. Vol. 2. Istoriya. Filologiya. Poehziya. Moscow: Nauka. 1986:130-144. (In Russ.)
  31. Kuzyk B.N., Titarenko M.L. Kitai – Rossiya 2050: Strategiya Sorazvitiya. Moscow: Institute of Economic Strategies. 2006. 656 с. ISBN 5-93618-095-6 (In Russ.)
  32. Iontsev V., Prokhorova Y. To the issue of international migration and nuptiality within the concept of the fourth demographic transition. In Scientific Series International Migration of Population: Russia and the Contemporary World; Ed. by V. Iontsev. 2014;28:78-85.
  33. Iontsev V.A. Evraziiskii put' demograficheskogo razvitiya Rossii i ee regionov kak odin iz global'nykh vyzovov. In III Mezhdunarodnyi demograficheskii forum Demografiya i global'nye vyzovy. Tom 1. Plenarnoe zasedanie. Sektsiya 1; Ed. by N.V. Yakovenko. Voronezh: Tsifrovaya poligrafiya. 2024:97-107. (In Russ.)
  34. Rybakovskii L.L., Fadeeva T.A. Regional Dynamics of the Birth Rate of the Russian Population in the Second Fifteen Years of the 21st Century. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(2):271-281. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_2_10_271_281 (In Russ.)
  35. Berdyaev N.A. Russkaya Ideya. Moscow: Eksmo. 2024. 384 p. ISBN 978-5-04-182101-2 (In Russ.)
  36. Vishnevskii A.G. Demograficheskaya Revolyuciya. Moscow: Statistika. 1977. 240 p. (In Russ.)
  37. World Population Prospects 2022. United Nations. 52 p. ISBN 9789210014380 https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210014380