DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE
The Interrelationship of Demographic and Socio-Economic Indicators of Regional Development in Russia
Vadim A. Bezverbny, Tamara K. Rostovskaya, Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy, Stanislav V. Roslavtsev

000

2.828 MB

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INDEX
RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL J11, R13

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_8_602_617

AUTHORS

Vadim A. Bezverbny

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3148-7072

SPIN-code: 5758-6360

ResearcherID: O-1050-2016

Scopus Author ID: 57210845020

Tamara K. Rostovskaya

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1629-7780

SPIN-code: 1129-8400

ResearcherID: F-5579-2018

Scopus Author ID: 57192987864

Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8725-6580

SPIN-code: 9559-1803

ResearcherID: AAG-1530-2021

Scopus Author ID: 57220956828

Stanislav V. Roslavtsev

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1045-3591

FOR CITATION
Bezverbny V.A., Rostovskaya T.K., Sitkovskiy A.S., Roslavtsev S.V. The Interrelationship of Demographic and Socio-Economic Indicators of Regional Development in Russia. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2025;21(4):602-617. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_8_602_617 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT
This study integrates spatial, demographic, and socioeconomic data to uncover systemic interdependencies between demographic processes and the level of socioeconomic development across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this article is to identify and assess the interrelationships between demographic processes (standard of living, fertility, mortality, life expectancy, migration etc.) and indicators of socio-economic development of regions in 1990–2025. Using matrices of pairwise correlation coefficients for 85 regions based on observations of 59 key socio-economic indicators for Federal State Statistics Service the period 1990–2025, together with an original database of strong correlations (r ≥ 0.7), two levels of analysis were undertaken: (1) aggregation of mean correlation coefficients for each selected demographic indicator; and (2) cluster analysis of regional "correlation portraits" using k‑means and hierarchical clustering. To substantiate the findings, a review of Russian and international literature was conducted on the effects of demographic processes on the economy, housing conditions, social infrastructure, and regional development. The results show that life expectancy exhibits the most robust positive associations with gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the cost of a fixed consumer basket, and negative associations with hospital bed availability and the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum. In most regions, the total fertility rate is inversely related to the level of urbanization, housing provision (residential floor area per capita), and credit burden. Population size and density are closely associated with the concentration of medical personnel, while negatively correlating with total credit indebtedness and housing provision. The cluster analysis identifies four regional types—synergistic, transitional, mixed, and contrasting—distinguished by the number and strength of correlation links. The observed patterns corroborate agglomeration‑effects and demographic‑transition theories and underscore the need for a differentiated regional policy that reflects the specificities of socioeconomic development across Russia's regions.

KEYWORDS
demographic processes; socioeconomic development of Russian regions; correlation analysis; cluster analysis; population size; total fertility rate (TFR); life expectancy; net migration; urban population share; population density

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 25-78-30004 «Digital Demographic Observatory: Development of a System for Monitoring Demographic Processes in Russian Regions Using GIS Technologies and Big Data», https://rscf.ru/project/25-78-30004/

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Vadim A. Bezverbny – PhD in Economics, Head of the Digital Demography Laboratories of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Geo-Urban Studies and Spatial Demography, Leading Researcher at the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Tamara K. Rostovskaya – Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Laboratory of Digital Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director for Research of the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy – Researcher at the Digital Demography Laboratories of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Junior Researcher at the Department of Geo-Urban Studies and Spatial Demography at the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Stanislav V. Roslavtsev – Junior Researcher, Digital Demography Laboratories, Federal Scientific Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

References

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2. Kozlova O.A., Makarova M.N., Arkhangelskiy V.N. Methodological Approach to Assessing Factor Influence on Fertility in Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(1):76–90. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_1_7_76_90 (In Russ.)
3. Kudymov V.M. Vzaimosvyaz’ Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh Protsessov s Pokazatelem Valovogo Regional’nogo Produkta. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika=Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2007;(24(105)): 37-47. (In Russ.)
4. Borisova K.B., Dvoretskii L.M., Fedotov A.A. Expectation in Russia: Regional Section and Influencing Factors. Mezhdunarodnyi zhurnal gumanitarnykh i estestvennykh nauk=International Journal of Humanities and Natural Sciences. 2021;(10-1(61)):203-209. https://doi.org/24412/2500-1000-2021-10-1-203-209 (In Russ.)
5. Fattakhov R.V., Nizamutdinov M.M., Oreshnikov V.V. Ranking of Regions of Russia by the Demographic Situation Considering the Level of Development of Social Infrastructure. Mir novoi ekonomiki=The World of New Economy. 2020;14(4):96-109. https://doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2020-14-4-96-109 (In Russ.)
6. Manshin R.V., Moiseeva E.M. Influence of Infrastructure on Population Distribution and Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Regions. 2022;18(3):727-741. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-8 (In Russ.)
7. Pastukhova E. Ya., Logunov T.A. Demographic Factor in the Economic Development of the Regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2024;27(1):109-122. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-1-109-122 (In Russ.)
8. Abykalikov S.I. Typological Analysis of Russian Regions by Migration Characteristics. Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2015;(22(397)):21-30. (In Russ.)
9. Shabashev V.A., Shorokhov S.I., Verkhozina M.F., et al. The Migration Attractiveness of Russian Regions: Economic, Social and Demographic Factors. Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2017;15(2(437)):391-404. https://doi.org/10.24891/re.15.2.391 (In Russ.)
10. Stepanov V.S., Bobkov V.N., Shamaeva E.F., Odintsova E.V. Building a Model Linking the Indicator of the Standard of Living of the Population with a Set of Indicators of Socio-Economic Policy in the Regions of Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2022;18(4):450–465. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.4.3 (In Russ.)
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12. Bloom D.E., Canning D., Fink G. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2011;26(4):583-612. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grq038
13. Lee R., Mason A. (eds.) Population Aging and the Generational Economy: a Global Perspective. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 2011. 616 p. ISBN 9781848448988
14. Chu N., Wu X., Zhang P., et al. Spatial Distribution Pattern Evolution of the Population and Economy in Russia since the 21st Century. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023;20(1),684. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010684
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SECTION:
ECONOMIC RESEARCH

TITLE
Financial Situation and Poverty Risks of Households with Students
Elena E. Grishina

000

2.828 MB

Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL I38

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_7_591_601

AUTHOR

Elena E. Grishina

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8548-5497

SPIN-code: 6414-7957

Scopus Author ID: 57207744090

FOR CITATION
Grishina E.E. Financial Situation and Poverty Risks of Households with Students. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2025;21(4):591-601. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_7_591_601 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this article is to analyze the financial situation of households with full-time students and to assess the effect of new social benefit for students from poor households on the poverty level and income deficit, and to estimate the amount of additional budget expenditures required to introduce this benefit. Model calculations were based on the Sample Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs (VNDN-2024) conducted by Federal State Statistics Service. The analysis showed that full-time college and university students are extremely vulnerable and need additional state social assistance. It was found that households with students, and especially households of students, and households with both students aged 17 to 23 and two or more children under 17, experience high poverty risks. Model calculations show that the introduction of a new benefit in the amount of 50% to 100% of the subsistence minimum for students aged 17 to 23 years with per capita income below the poverty line could reduce the poverty level by 1.2 times, and the total income deficit by 1.3 times. The introduction of the benefit will require additional budget funding in the amount of 0.06% of GDP per year and help to improve the financial situation of households with students and the human capital quality of young people.

KEYWORDS
students, income, poverty level, income deficit, social support measures, scholarship, allowance

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
the work was carried out with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23-18-00537, https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-18-00537/, at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
Elena E. Grishina – PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher, Laboratory for Research on the Social and Labor Situation of Households with Children, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

References

1. Yelizarov V.V., Sinitsa A.L. Factors of Poverty of Families with Children and Prospects of its Reduction. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2019;15(2(212):63–75. https://doi.org/10.24411/1999-9836-2019-10065 (In Russ.)
2. Rzhanitsina L.S., Rybalchenko S.I. Improving the Situation of Children in Divorced Families — the Way to Reduce Poverty in Russia. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2021;24(1):24–32. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2021.24.1.3 (In Russ.)
3. Smirnov V.M., Selivanova O.V. Single-Parent Household in Russia: Scale, Problems and Social Assistance. Ehkonomika truda=Russian Journal of Labor Economics. 2023;10(5):695–714. https://doi.org/10.18334/et.10.5.117824 (In Russ.)
4. Razumov A.A., Selivanova O.V. The Impact of Child Benefits and Compensation Payments on Poverty Reduction in the Regions of Russia. Sotsial'no-trudovye issledovaniya=Social and Labor Research. 2023;(1(50)):83–93. https://doi.org/10.34022/2658-3712-2022-50-1-83-93 (In Russ.)
5. Grishina E. Possible Risks and Problems in Social Protection of Families with Children Hindering Poverty Reduction. Demograficheskoye obozreniye=Demographic Review. 2025;12(1):86–103. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v12i1.26580 (In Russ.)
6. Korchagina I.I., Prokofieva L.M. Families with High School Children: the Need for Social Assistance. Narodonaselenie=Population.2022;25(3):153–162. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2022.25.3.12 (In Russ.)
7. Korobkova N.Yu. Standard Child Allowance in the System of Social Support Measures in Current Conditions: Impact Assessment Based on Income Modeling. Sotsial'no-trudovye issledovaniya=Social and Labor Research. 2023;(4(53)):132–142. https://doi.org/10.34022/2658-3712-2023-53-4-132-142 (In Russ.)
8. Creating Pathways to Success for Young People. Policy paper. OECD. Paris: OECD Publishing; 2024. 20 p. https://doi.org/10.1787/fa0145d1-en
9. Toper F., Aslan H. Üniversite Öğrencileri Arasında Çok Boyutlu Yoksulluğun İncelenmesi. Toplumsal Politika Dergisi. 2023;4(1):23–41.
10. Kuchmaeva O.V., Zolotareva O.A. Student family in modern Russia: demographic and social characteristics according to sample survey data. Vestnik Yuzhno-Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskiye nauki=Bulletin of the South-Russian State Technical University. Series Socio-Economic Sciences.2022;15(1):135–149. https://doi.org/10.17213/2075-2067-2022-1-135-149 (In Russ.)
11. Tsyganenko N.V. Academic Performance of Working Students. Obrazovaniye i Problemy Razvitiya Obshchestva.2021;(4(17)):113–120. (In Russ.)
12. Yarkova T. A., Mikhaylova N. K. Student Imployment in the Labour Market: «Old» or New Trends? Ekonomika truda=Labor Economics.2019;6(1):587–598. https://doi.org/10.18334/et.6.1.39880 (In Russ.)
13. Wright N. A., Carter A.К. Who Benefits Most? Examining the Heterogeneous Impact of a Need-Based Grant Program in Jamaica. Working Paper No. 2412. Florida International University, Department of Economics. Miami: Florida International University; 2024. 22 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4946638
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15. Page M. New Advances on an Old Question: Does Money Matter for Children's Outcomes? Journal of Economic Literature. 2024;62(3):891–947. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20231553
16. Dynarski S., Page L.C., Scott-Clayton J. College Costs, Financial Aid, and Student Decisions. In: Hanushek E.A., Machin S., Woessmann L. (eds.) Handbook of the Economics of Education. North Holland: Elsevier; 2023. P. 227–285. ISBN 978-0-444-53429-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.hesedu.2023.03.006

ECONOMIC RESEARCH

TITLE
Risks and Opportunities of Introducing a Basic Income in Russia into the Russian Pension System
Vyacheslav N. Bobkov, Nikolay K. Dolgushkin, Ekaterina A. Smirnova, Vladimir V. Kovalenko

000

2.828 MB

Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL H55

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_6_577_590

AUTHORS

Vyacheslav N. Bobkov

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7364-5297

SPIN-code: 5639-0410

ReseacherID: U-6527-2019

Scopus Author ID: 55960509800

Nikolay K. Dolgushkin

Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1969-9451

SPIN-code: 9327-6822

ReseacherID: HCH-2675-2022

Scopus Author ID: 57260259100

Ekaterina A. Smirnova

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4703-3171

SPIN-code: 4549-7878

ResearcherID: ABD-3297-2020

Scopus Author ID: 60153468200

Vladimir V. Kovalenko

Sochi State University, Sochi, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1979-8679

SPIN-code: 6027-3119

Scopus Author ID: 56165483300

FOR CITATION
Bobkov V.N., Dolgushkin N.K., Smirnova E.A., Kovalenko V.V. Risks and Opportunities of Introducing a Basic Income in Russia into the Russian Pension System. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2025;21(4):577-590. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_6_577_590 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT
The article examines the risks and opportunities of introducing a universal basic income into the Russian pension system. The aim of the presented study is to identify them and justify measures to reduce risks and realize opportunities. The object of the study is the state pension system of the Russian Federation, which includes compulsory pension insurance and state social security. The subject of the study is the risks and opportunities of developing the pension system with the introduction of basic pension income. The research hypothesis is that the risks of introducing a basic pension income as a separate element of the state pension system can be minimized, and the opportunities can be used to improve the standard of living of pensioners. The authors used domestic and foreign scientific publications, legislation in the field of pension provision, analytical reports of Russian and international organizations on the study of the standard of living of the population, social protection and justice for their research. The research methods included: analysis of regulatory legal acts in the field of pension legislation and scientific literature on the problem under study; systematization of risks and opportunities, their assessment and application of appropriate matrices; computational and analytical method; the method of logical substantiation of the outlined approaches, as well as their scientific synthesis. The results of the study are the characteristics of the main elements of a promising pension system – basic pension income, insurance and supplementary pension. A matrix of risks of introducing basic pension income into the pension system has been constructed, and a risk management system has been described. The risks of high, medium and low probability during the transition to a new state pension system and the possibility of improving the standard of living of pensioners are specified. The directions of further research are outlined, which consist in supplementing the logical method of identifying risks and opportunities for introducing basic pension income into the Russian pension system by obtaining appropriate risk-oriented expert assessments, as well as processing the results of a mass survey of respondents from among employees and pensioners who are not experts; to develop a roadmap for the transition from the current mechanism for paying insurance and social pensions to a new one based on risk management and the possibility of introducing basic pension income tools into the pension system.

KEYWORDS
universal basic income; basic pension income; risks; opportunities; state pension system; compulsory pension insurance; state pension provision; social protection; standard of living of pensioners; risk management

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
the reported study was funded by Russian Science Foundation grant 25-18-00228, https://rscf.ru/en/project/25-18-00228/, at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Vyacheslav N. Bobkov - Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honoured Science Worker of the Russian Federation, Head of the Scientific Project, Laboratory for Research on the Basic Pension, the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Nikolay K. Dolgushkin – Doctor of Economics, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vice-President, the Russian Academy of Sciences

Ekaterina A. Smirnova – PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, the Laboratory for Research on the Basic Pension Income, the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Vladimir V. Kovalenko – PhD in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Information Technology and Mathematic, Sochi State University

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ECONOMIC RESEARCH

TITLE

Analysis of Conditions for Achieving National Goals of Decent Standard of Living for Pensioners
Arkadii K. Solovev

000

2.828 MB

Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL J01

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_5_562_576

AUTHOR

Arkadii K. Solovev

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8563-9836

SPIN-code:  6165-1300

Scopus Author ID: 57200797260

FOR CITATION

Solovev A.K. Analysis of Сonditions for Achieving National Goals of Decent Standard of Living for Pensioners. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2025;21(4):562-576. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_5_562_576 (In Russ.)

Abstract

This study analyses the conditions for attaining the socio-economic development parameters of the state pension system, as stipulated by statutory instruments. The relevance of this research is underpinned by the forthcoming 2026–2028 budgetary and planning period, which represents a decisive phase in finalising the reform of the fundamental principles governing the insurance-based pension system. These principles were originally established in 2002 and subsequently refined by the governmental «Strategy for the Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation's State Pension System until 2030» (Strategy-2030). The methodological framework is grounded in an actuarial analysis of the conditions for achieving national objectives for a decent standard of living for pensioners, coupled with an assessment of risks associated with fulfilling the state's long-term commitments to all pensioner categories. The actuarial-statistical analysis established that the contemporary state pension system, notwithstanding the execution of its social functions and the implementation of core Strategy-2030 measures—such as the eradication of poverty among all pensioner categories, the removal of funded components from the insurance pension, and the revision of pension entitlement criteria—is subject to the growing influence of external global factors. These factors present strategic risks to the attainment of national objectives for the welfare of older generations, as defined by Russian Presidential Decree No. 309 (2024). The study identified unresolved issues from prior stages of the insurance-based pension reform. It demonstrated that current developments have confronted the national pension system with novel challenges, stemming from objective shifts in the global and national landscape. These challenges extend beyond the remit of the pension system itself and necessitate regulation within the framework of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the research substantiates that the advancement of digital technologies within the social security system constitutes a pivotal factor in enhancing the efficacy with which the state fulfils its pension obligations to citizens. The study also delineates the conditions requisite for achieving the national goals of a prosperous old age within the established timelines and pinpoints the specific impediments to enhancing the pension system's overall efficiency.

Keywords

national goals for a prosperous old age, state pension system, mandatory pension insurance, standard of living for pensioners, replacement rate, actuarial and statistical analysis

Acknowledgements

the research was carried out at the expense of the grant of the Russian Science Foundation No. 24-28-00306

AUTHOR BIOGRAFY

Arkadii K. Solovev

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director, Research Center for the Development of the State Pension System and Actuarial and Statistical Analysis, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 

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