Uncategorised Hits: 36

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE
The Interrelationship of Demographic and Socio-Economic Indicators of Regional Development in Russia
Vadim A. Bezverbny, Tamara K. Rostovskaya, Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy, Stanislav V. Roslavtsev

Размер файла000
 Размер файла  2.828 MB Размер файла Full text

INDEX
RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL J11, R13

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_8_602_617

AUTHORS

Vadim A. Bezverbny

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3148-7072

SPIN-code: 5758-6360

ResearcherID: O-1050-2016

Scopus Author ID: 57210845020

Tamara K. Rostovskaya

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1629-7780

SPIN-code: 1129-8400

ResearcherID: F-5579-2018

Scopus Author ID: 57192987864

Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8725-6580

SPIN-code: 9559-1803

ResearcherID: AAG-1530-2021

Scopus Author ID: 57220956828

Stanislav V. Roslavtsev

Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1045-3591

FOR CITATION
Bezverbny V.A., Rostovskaya T.K., Sitkovskiy A.S., Roslavtsev S.V. The Interrelationship of Demographic and Socio-Economic Indicators of Regional Development in Russia. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2025;21(4):602-617. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2025_21_4_8_602_617 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT
This study integrates spatial, demographic, and socioeconomic data to uncover systemic interdependencies between demographic processes and the level of socioeconomic development across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this article is to identify and assess the interrelationships between demographic processes (standard of living, fertility, mortality, life expectancy, migration etc.) and indicators of socio-economic development of regions in 1990–2025. Using matrices of pairwise correlation coefficients for 85 regions based on observations of 59 key socio-economic indicators for Federal State Statistics Service the period 1990–2025, together with an original database of strong correlations (r ≥ 0.7), two levels of analysis were undertaken: (1) aggregation of mean correlation coefficients for each selected demographic indicator; and (2) cluster analysis of regional "correlation portraits" using k‑means and hierarchical clustering. To substantiate the findings, a review of Russian and international literature was conducted on the effects of demographic processes on the economy, housing conditions, social infrastructure, and regional development. The results show that life expectancy exhibits the most robust positive associations with gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the cost of a fixed consumer basket, and negative associations with hospital bed availability and the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum. In most regions, the total fertility rate is inversely related to the level of urbanization, housing provision (residential floor area per capita), and credit burden. Population size and density are closely associated with the concentration of medical personnel, while negatively correlating with total credit indebtedness and housing provision. The cluster analysis identifies four regional types—synergistic, transitional, mixed, and contrasting—distinguished by the number and strength of correlation links. The observed patterns corroborate agglomeration‑effects and demographic‑transition theories and underscore the need for a differentiated regional policy that reflects the specificities of socioeconomic development across Russia's regions.

KEYWORDS
demographic processes; socioeconomic development of Russian regions; correlation analysis; cluster analysis; population size; total fertility rate (TFR); life expectancy; net migration; urban population share; population density

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 25-78-30004 «Digital Demographic Observatory: Development of a System for Monitoring Demographic Processes in Russian Regions Using GIS Technologies and Big Data», https://rscf.ru/project/25-78-30004/

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Vadim A. Bezverbny – PhD in Economics, Head of the Digital Demography Laboratories of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Geo-Urban Studies and Spatial Demography, Leading Researcher at the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Tamara K. Rostovskaya – Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Laboratory of Digital Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director for Research of the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Arseniy M. Sitkovskiy – Researcher at the Digital Demography Laboratories of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Junior Researcher at the Department of Geo-Urban Studies and Spatial Demography at the Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Stanislav V. Roslavtsev – Junior Researcher, Digital Demography Laboratories, Federal Scientific Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

References

  1. Fujita M., Krugman P., Venables A.J. The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press; 2001. 367 p. ISBN 978-0-262-56147-1 https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2000.tb00353.x
  2. Kozlova O.A., Makarova M.N., Arkhangelskiy V.N. Methodological Approach to Assessing Factor Influence on Fertility in Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(1):76–90. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_1_7_76_90 (In Russ.)
  3. Kudymov V.M. Vzaimosvyaz’ Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh Protsessov s Pokazatelem Valovogo Regional’nogo Produkta. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika=Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2007;(24(105)): 37-47. (In Russ.)
  4. Borisova K.B., Dvoretskii L.M., Fedotov A.A. Expectation in Russia: Regional Section and Influencing Factors. Mezhdunarodnyi zhurnal gumanitarnykh i estestvennykh nauk=International Journal of Humanities and Natural Sciences. 2021;(10-1(61)):203-209. https://doi.org/24412/2500-1000-2021-10-1-203-209 (In Russ.)
  5. Fattakhov R.V., Nizamutdinov M.M., Oreshnikov V.V. Ranking of Regions of Russia by the Demographic Situation Considering the Level of Development of Social Infrastructure. Mir novoi ekonomiki=The World of New Economy. 2020;14(4):96-109. https://doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2020-14-4-96-109 (In Russ.)
  6. Manshin R.V., Moiseeva E.M. Influence of Infrastructure on Population Distribution and Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Regions. 2022;18(3):727-741. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-8 (In Russ.)
  7. Pastukhova E. Ya., Logunov T.A. Demographic Factor in the Economic Development of the Regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2024;27(1):109-122. https://doi.org/10.24412/1561-7785-2024-1-109-122 (In Russ.)
  8. Abykalikov S.I. Typological Analysis of Russian Regions by Migration Characteristics. Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2015;(22(397)):21-30. (In Russ.)
  9. Shabashev V.A., Shorokhov S.I., Verkhozina M.F., et al. The Migration Attractiveness of Russian Regions: Economic, Social and Demographic Factors. Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2017;15(2(437)):391-404. https://doi.org/10.24891/re.15.2.391 (In Russ.)
  10. Stepanov V.S., Bobkov V.N., Shamaeva E.F., Odintsova E.V. Building a Model Linking the Indicator of the Standard of Living of the Population with a Set of Indicators of Socio-Economic Policy in the Regions of Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2022;18(4):450–465. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.4.3 (In Russ.)
  11. Batunova E., Perucca G. Population Shrinkage and Economic Growth in Russian Regions 1998–2012. Regional Science Policy and Practice. 2020;12(4):595-609. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12262
  12. Bloom D.E., Canning D., Fink G. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2011;26(4):583-612. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grq038
  13. Lee R., Mason A. (eds.) Population Aging and the Generational Economy: a Global Perspective. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 2011. 616 p. ISBN 9781848448988
  14. Chu N., Wu X., Zhang P., et al. Spatial Distribution Pattern Evolution of the Population and Economy in Russia since the 21st Century. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023;20(1),684. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010684
  15. Clemens M., Pritchett L. The New Economic Case for Migration Restrictions: An Assessment. Journal of Development Economics. 2019;138:153-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.12.003