DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE

Regional Dynamics of the Birth Rate of the Russian Population in the Second Fifteen Years of the 21st Century

Leonid L. Rybakovskii, Tamara A. Fadeeva

Размер файла271−281
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INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_2_10_271_281

EDN SOBNWI

AUTHORS

Leonid L. Rybakovskii

Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of 
Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9702-2534

SPIN-code: 7149-2499

РИНЦ Author ID: 71691 

Tamara A. Fadeeva

Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of 
Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9866-5913 

SPIN-code: 4296-4012

РИНЦ Author ID: 854710

FOR CITATION

Rybakovskii L.L., Fadeeva T.A. Regional Dynamics of the Birth Rate of the Russian Population in the Second Fifteen Years of the 21st Century. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2024;20(2):271–281. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2024_20_2_10_271_281 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

The article is devoted to the processes that took place in the 90s in the economic, social and other spheres of life of Russian society and 
shows their changes that have occurred in the new century. Demographic processes, which experienced a deep crisis for almost the entire 90s, did not stand aside either. Depopulation, caused by both an increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate, continued at the beginning of the 21st century, changing only its components: at the beginning of the new century, mortality remained extremely high, while the birth rate had already begun to gradually increase. Urgent measures were needed that could correct the demographic situation in Russia. The article shows that the mid-1990s (2014–2016) was a turning point in the former comparative prosperity in the demographic development of Russia. Since 2016, a period of natural decline has begun again. It became especially significant in 2021–2022. during the coronavirus epidemic. The article provides an analysis of the regional differentiation of fertility dynamics in Russia in the tenth and twenties of the 21st century and the influence of demographic policy measures on them. The improvement in the demographic situation, as well as the onset of depopulation during this period, are associated with two factors – changes in age-specific birth rates and the number of women in reproductive groups. This is characterized based on the dynamics of the total fertility rate for 2002–2022. Formerly in the tenth and early twenties of the 21st century. The dynamics of the number of women in the most active reproductive ages affected the ratio of the rate of decline in the number of births and TFR. In the 20s, the number of women of reproductive age will continue to decline, as evidenced by the figures on the birth rate in the 80s and 90s and the 2020 census data on reproductive ages. The demographic wave that arose in those years had a very significant influence and will continue to influence the number of births in the 20s. But it will not be limited to this time. At the turn of the 40s–50s the wave will make itself known again. To reduce its consequences, it is necessary to adopt a new, well-thought-out demographic policy today.

KEYWORDS

total fertility rate, depopulation, demographic policy, age-specific fertility rates, numbers births, number of deaths, reproductive age, natural population movement, maternal (family) capital, effectiveness of demographic movement

AUTHORS BIOGRAFY

Leonid L. Rybakovskii

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Research Worker, Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the 
Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the RAS

Tamara A. Fadeeva

PhD in Economics, Leading Researcher, the Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of 
Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the RAS

REFERENCES

1. Karaulov A. Russkij ad. In 2 Vol. Moscow: Argumenty nedeli; 2012. 512 p. ISBN 978-5-280-03739-7 (In Russ.)
2. Rogachev S.V. Vybor al'ternativ: riski i mify. Moscow: ISPR RAS; 2012. 335 p. ISBN 978-5-7556-0473-4 (In Russ.)
3. Rybakovskij L.L. 20 let depopulyacii v Rossii. Moscow: Ekon-Inform; 2014. 231 p. ISBN 978-5-9506-1114-8 (In Russ.)
4. Karelova G.N., Rybakovskij L.L. (eds.) Stabilizaciya chislennosti naseleniya Rossii (vozmozhnosti i napravleniya demograficheskoi politiki). Moscow: Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing; 2001. 262 p. (In Russ.)
5. Ryazancev S.V. (ed.) Demographic situation in Russia: new challenges and ways of optimization. National demographic report. Moscow: Ekon-Inform; 2019. 79 p. ISBN 978-5-907057-98-2 (In Russ.)
6. Ryazancev S.V. (ed.) Demograficheskoe razvitie Rossii: tendencii, prognozy, mery. National demographic report. Moscow: Ob"edinennaya redakciya LLC; 2020. 156 p. ISBN 978-5-93856-292-9 https://doi.org/10.25629/HC.2020.13.01 (In Russ.)
7. Arkhangelskiy V.N. Assistance to families with children in Russia: an assessment of demographic efficiency. Sociologicheskie issledovaniya=Sociological studies. 2015;(3(371)):56-64. (In Russ.)
8. Arkhangelsky V.N. Transformation of fertility indicators in the real generations of Russian women. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2014;(3(65)):26-41. (In Russ.) 
9. Osipov G.V., Rybakovskii L.L. (eds.) Demograficheskoe razvitie Rossii v pervoj chetverti XXI veka. Moscow: Ekon-Inform; 2009. 339 p. ISBN 978-5-9506-0413-3 (In Russ.)
10. Kolbanov V.F., Rybakovskii L.L. (eds.), Arhangel'skij V.N., et al. Demograficheskoe nastoyashchee i budushchee Rossii: monograf. Moscow: Ekon-Inform; 2012. 417 p. ISBN 978-5-9506-0884-1 (In Russ.) 
11. Arkhangelskii V.N., Ivanova A.E., Fadeeva T.A. Vosproizvodstvennyj potencial demograficheskogo razvitiya Rossii. Moscow: Ekon-Inform; 2022. 165 p. ISBN 978-5-907427-72-3 (In Russ.)
12. Rybakovsky O.L., Tayunova O.A. Population dynamics of Russian regions and its components in 1959–2017. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2019;22(1):4-20. https://doi.org/10.19181/1561-7785-2019-00001 (In Russ.) 
13. Rybakovsky O.L., Fadeeva T.A. Depopulation in the regions of Russia by the beginning of 2020. Narodonaselenie=Population. 2020;23(3):119-129. https://doi.org/10.19181/population.2020.23.3.11 (In Russ.)

The article was submitted 13.03.2024; approved after reviewing 18.05.2024; accepted for publication 09.06.2024.

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE

Approaches to Assessing the Contribution of Migrant Workers to the Economy of the Host Country

Ol'ga D. Vorob'eva, Anastasiya E. Rubina

Размер файла591-601  Размер файла  447.39 KB Размер файла Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_4_9_591_601

EDN VHTVKK

AUTHORS

Ol'ga D. Vorob'eva

Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1304-3715

РИНЦ Author ID: 250138

Anastasiya E. Rubina

Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9581-698X

РИНЦ Author ID: 998383

FOR CITATION

Vorob'eva OD, Rubina AE. Approaches to Assessing the Contribution of Migrant Workers to the Economy of the Host Country. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023;19(4):591–601. (In Russ.)https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_4_9_591_601 https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_4_9_591_601

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The study was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant № 20-511-05007) "Socio-economic potential of the Armenian Diaspora in the context of integration processes in the EAEU".

ABSTRACT

The article is devoted to the development of a methodology for assessing the socio-economic potential of the human capital of the diaspora of labor migrants, and the economic contribution of labor migration in the host country, which was developed under Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant № 20-511-05007 "Socio-economic potential of the Armenian Diaspora in the context of integration processes in the EAEU" on the example of the Armenian Diaspora in Russia. The review of approaches to the study of migration processes within the framework of the theory of human capital, as well as available methods for assessing the economic contribution of labor migrants to the economy of their host countries. The concepts of the diaspora's human capital and socio-economic potential are given. Methodological approaches to assessing the socio-economic potential of migrants' human capital in the host country include two groups of components: quantitative assessments consisting of statistical indicators including socio-economic characteristics of migrants, as well as qualitative ones reflecting their value and motivational attitudes. The methods of obtaining information about these characteristics, as well as their features, are described. Methodological approaches to assessing the contribution of labor migrants to the socio-economic development of the region are defined. A methodology has been developed for assessing the economic contribution of labor migration in the host country, including measuring the contribution of migrants to the production of gross domestic product, the production of goods and services in the host country, revenues to federal and regional budgets in the form of taxes and fees, expanding the capacity of the consumer market by the amount of funds spent by labor migrants in the host country, general assessment of tension in the labor market, assessment of the structure of employment and unemployment of migrant workers, assessment of their impact on the level of wages of the local population, as well as assessing the impact of international migration on the scale of attracting international labor migrants.

KEYWORDS

human capital, socio-economic potential of migrants, diaspora, labor migration, economic contribution of migration, assessment methodology, economy of the host country

AUTHORS BIOGRAFY

Ol'ga D. Vorob'eva

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Department of Reproduction of Labor Resources and Employment of the Population, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Anastasiya E. Rubina

3-rd year Postgraduate Student, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

REFERENCES

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  7. Lalonde R., Topel R. Economic impact of international migration and the economic performance of migrants. In: Handbook of Population and Family Economics. Сh. 14. Vol. 1. Part B. Michigan State University, University of Chicago; 1997. P. 799-850. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-003X(97)80006-2
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  13. Topilin G., Poghosyan G., Osadchaya G., et al. Socio-economic potential of the Armenian Diaspora in the context of integration into the EAEU. Tsentral'naya Aziya i Kavkaz=Central Asia and The Caucasus. 2021;24(3):117-128. (In Russ.) https://doi. org/10.37178/ca-c.21.03.09
  14. Ikromov D.Z. Approaches to assessing the impact of international labor migration on the socio-economic development of the country. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya=Fundamental Research. 2015;2(20):4469-4474. (In Russ.)

The article was submitted 28.07.2023; approved after reviewing 21.09.2023; accepted for publication 01.12.2023.

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

The Migration Component and Its Contribution to the Demographic Development of Modern Russia

Leonid L. Rybakovskii

Размер файла327-337  Размер файла  451.85 KB Размер файла Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_2_327_337

EDN: EIOOWG

AUTHOR

Leonid L. Rybakovskii

Institute for Demographic Research - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS) Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9702-2534

РИНЦ Author ID: 71691

FOR CITATION

Rybakovskii L.L. The Migration Component and Its Contribution to the Demographic Development of Modern Russia. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023;19(3):327–337. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_2_327_337

ABSTRACT

The article notes that in the post-Soviet period, Russian migration has become mainly a component that counteracts the decline in the country's population, it is shown that an increase in the population of any state is possible not only as a result of reproduction and migration, but also as a result of the accession of other countries and populated territories to it, i.e. the process mechanical movement. The paper says that migration processes in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first decades of the twenty-first century are largely determined by two circumstances: the nature of migration movements, which was steadily formed in the pre-revolutionary and Soviet periods of the existence of the Russian state, and the fact that in the internal resettlement for Russia, a huge scale belonged to the exchange of population with other parts of the common country, former Soviet republics. In the post-war 40 years of the existence of the USSR, at first Russia had a general migration loss, and then the country received about half a million people due to inter-republican migration. The collapse of the Soviet Union significantly changed all spheres of life in Russian society, including migration. As a result of the transformation of spatial movements, one type of population migration (internal) has turned into another type (international). This has significantly reduced the total volume of migration of the Russian population. Since the beginning of the 90s, migration has become a constant component that reduces the impact of depopulation on demographic dynamics. The article shows the ethnic migrations that have become significant: the arrival of the Russian population in Russia from the states of the new abroad and the emigration of Jews and Germans from the country, which has taken on a noticeable scale. The final part of the article shows the demographic situation in the Asian part of Russia, the population of which, despite the measures taken to accelerate the settlement of Siberia and the Far East, continues to decline.

KEYWORDS

migration processes, mechanical movement, components of demographic dynamics, ethnic migration, depopulation, new abroad, transformation of internal migrations

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Leonid L. Rybakovskii

Doctor of Economics, Professor,Chief Research Worker of Institute for Demographic Research of FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russiа

REFERENCES

  1. Isard, W. Metody regional'nogo analiza: vvedenie v nauku o regionakh. Moscow: Progress; 1966. 660 p. (In Russ.)
  2. «Emigration from and Immigration into Russia» By Obolensky-Ossinsky V.V. Demographic Monographs. Vol. 7 By Wakter F. Willcox. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONS. N.Y.-London–Paris; 1969.
  3. Slater Paul B. Hierarchical Regionalization of RSFSR Administrative Units Using 1966–69 Migration Data. Reprint Series IХ, № 5 Reprinted from Soviet Geography Vol. ХVI, № 7 (September 1975). Regional Research Institute West Virginia University. Morgantown, West Virginia 20506, 453–465 р.
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  5. Ryazantsev S.V. Trudovaya migratsiya v stranakh SNG i Baltii: tendentsii, posledstviya i regulirovanie. Moscow: Formula prava = Formula of law; 2007. 576 p. (in Russ.) ISBN 978–5–8467–0049–9
  1. Iontsev V.A., Migration of the population. Vol. 3: International migration. Supplement to the journal "Migration in Russia". Moscow; 2001. 112 р. (In Russ.)
  2. Rybakovskii O.L. Regularities and features of interregional migration relations of the population of Russia for 50 years: [monograph]. O.L. Rybakovskii; FCTAS RAS. Moscow: FCTAS RAN; 2022. 471 p. (in Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.19181/monogr.978-5- 89697-383-6.2021
  3. Transformation of migration processes in the post-Soviet space. ed. L.L. Rybakovsky. Mоscow: Academia; 2009. 432 р. (In Russ.) ISBN 978-5-87444-313-9
  4. Rybakovskii O.L., Tajunova O.A. Implementation of the concept of demographic policy in Russia in the field of permanent migration. Russia. Moscow. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological researches. 2016;(6):34–41. (In Russ.)
  5. Topilin A.V. Modern immigration in Russia: features of 2011–2016. Narodonaselenie = Population. 2017;(3):37–50. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.26653/1561-7785-2017-3-3
  6. Tolts M. Post-Soviet Jewish Diaspora: Newest Assessments. 2012(497–498). URL: http://www.demoscope. /weekly/2012/0497/tema01.php. (In Russ.)
  7. Polyan P. Zhertvy dvukh diktatur. Moscow: Vash vybor TSIRZ; 1996. (In Russ.)
  8. Rybakovskii L.L. Colonization of the Asian part of the country: features of implementation and geopolitical consequences. Russia. Moscow. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological researches. 2018;(8):38–47. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.31857/S013216250000760-9
  9. Rybakovskii L.L., Savinkov V.I., Kozhevnikova N.I. Demographic development of Asian Russia in the XX–XXI centuries: Evaluation of results Russia. Moscow. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological researches. 2018;(11):64–73. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.31857/S013216250002786-7

The article was submitted 22.05.2023; approved after reviewing 02.07.2023; accepted for publication 15.08.2023.

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

Demographic Potential: Essence, Structure and Main Factors

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

Размер файла319-326  Размер файла  403.79 KB Размер файла Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326

EDN: CQKRYK

AUTHOR

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8937-3166   

РИНЦ AuthorID: 42430

WoS ReseacherID: B-8924-2018

Author ID Scopus: 39362389200

FOR CITATION

Rybakovskii O.L. Demographic potential: essence, structure and main factors. Uroven' zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023;19(3):319–326. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_3_1_319_326

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to reveal the essence of the concept of "demographic potential", to give it an exhaustive definition, to reveal its structure and to identify the main factors affecting it. After analyzing the history of the term "demographic potential" and examining modern works on this topic, the author came to the following conclusions. Demographic potential is a generalizing term that includes resources and/or current and future opportunities and/or additional reserves for the development of demographic processes taking place in a particular territory, as well as (in the case of population migration) and beyond, in the regions associated with migration. Demographic resources are the number and demographic structure of the population of the territory. Demographic opportunities are the levels of intensity of the territory's demographic processes and their demographic consequences, such as changes in demographic structures. Demographic reserves are prospective possible deviations of the intensity levels of demographic processes of the territory and their expected demographic consequences from "promising inert" trends – under the influence of demographic policy measures, external and internal factors. Depending on what can be invested in the concept of "demographic potential", demographic resources, demographic opportunities or demographic reserves, it can be represented as: one of three components; two out of three; all three. In the latter case, there will be a de facto full analysis of the demographic situation with forecasts. The demographic potential includes two parts – reproductive and migration potentials, and four components. If the demographic potential is considered as opportunities and/or reserves of demographic processes, then these components are the potential for changes in the intensity of the age-related birth rate of the population, the potential for changes in the intensity of mortality of the population in the gender and age context, the potential for changes in the intensity of permanent arrivals and departures in the geographical context. At the end of the article, the main factors of all components of the demographic potential are given.

KEYWORDS

demographic potential, demographic resources, opportunities and reserves, reproductive potential, migration potential, demographic structures of the population, components and factors of demographic potential

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Oleg L. Rybakovskii

Doctor of Economics, Head of the Laboratory of N.V. Rimashevskaya Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISEPS FCTAS RAS); Chief Researcher at the Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDI FCTAS RAS), Moscow, Russia

REFERENCES

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  12. Iontsev V.A., Magomedova A.G. Demographic aspects of human capital development in Russia and its regions. Economika regiona = Economy of the region. 2015;(3):89-102. (In Russ.) DOI https://doi.org/10.17059/2015-3-8
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The article was submitted 23.05.2023; approved after reviewing 02.07.2023; accepted for publication 15.08.2023.

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

Labor Migration of Bulgarians to the EU: Background, Causes, Motives, Consequences. Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ralitsa Savova

Размер файла260-271 Размер файла  1.08 MB Размер файла Full text

INDEX

RAR (Research Article Report)

DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_2_9_260_271

EDN: NSGPFY

AUTHOR

Ralitsa Savova

Pécs University, Pécs, Hungary

European Cultural Route “Longobard Ways across Europe”, Cividale del Friuli, Italy

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Semantic Scholar: 147969228

FOR CITATION

Savova R. Labor Migration of Bulgarians to the EU: Background, Causes, Motives, Consequences. Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2023. Vol. 19. No 2. P. 260–271. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_2_9_260_271

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research article is to describe the main trends in the labor migration of dozens of Bulgarians to some countries of the European Union in the period 2019-2022 in terms of the factors that shape their migration behavior. During some of her business trips and work abroad, the author of the research paper, who is Bulgarian, did this according to the methodology of one of the most widespread methods of qualitative research: she wrote down in detailed field notes what she saw, heard and experienced among the Bulgarian migrant communities in some European Union countries; and interviews: she personally asked dozens of Bulgarian labor migrants in a one-to-one semi-structured and unstructured interview a series of questions about the reasons and motives for their migration, and based on their answers, divided the migrants into several conditional groups. The labor migration trends of these conditional groups of Bulgarian labor migrants during the pandemic are also described, as the pandemic led to a reduction in their labor mobility in the EU in 2020 and 2021, which negatively affected both them and their employers. Finally, the labor migration of Bulgarians is shown neither from a negative, nor from a positive side, but as a complex phenomenon that must always be considered from both sides in its entirety, with all pros and cons arising from this as consequences, and in the present case study, the author is interested in the consequences of labor migration for both migrants and the sending country.

KEYWORDS

Bulgarian labor migrants, Bulgaria, migration, labor mobility, wages, European Union, COVID-19 pandemic

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Ralitsa Savova

PhD Candidate, Researcher, Pécs University; Pécs, Hungary; Official Representative for Central and Eastern Europe of the European Cultural Route “Longobard Ways across Europe”, Cividale del Friuli, Italy

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The article was submitted 19.12.2022; approved after reviewing 24.03.2023; accepted for publication 16.05.2023.