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ECONOMIC RESEARCH

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Regional Trends in the Prevalence of Informal Employment in Russia

Alexander L. Safonov, Daria V. Nekipelova

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RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL O17

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_5_256_268

AUTHORS

Alexander L. Safonov

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3577-5490

SPIN-code: 7192-4121

ResearcherID: PKS-0017-2026

Daria V. Nekipelova

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8891-009X

SPIN-code: 8952-9510

FOR CITATION

Safonov A.L., Nekipelova D.V. Regional Trends in the Prevalence of Informal Employment in Russia. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2026;22(2):256–268. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_5_256_268 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study is to identify regional patterns and trends in the prevalence of informal employment in Russia. The theoretical framework comprises the productive and legalist approaches of the International Labour Organization, the concept of precarisation of labour relations, and the theory of «digital organised informality». The methodological basis includes a balance approach to estimating informal employment (using data from the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, EMISS) as the difference between the total number of employed persons in the economy and the average number of employees in organisations, as well as correlation analysis (Pearson’s coefficient) to identify relationships with the unemployment rate and the rate of legalisation of the self-employed. It has been established that, following the post-pandemic decline in 2020, the recovery dynamics led to an absolute maximum of 30 million informally employed by 2023–2024, indicating the consolidation of the informal sector as a systemic element of the economy. Correlation analysis confirmed its compensatory function: the predominance of a negative relationship with the unemployment rate (76 regions) points to its role as a labour market buffer. A stable positive correlation was identified between the number of informally employed and the number of legalised self-employed individuals (78 regions, with coefficients ranging from 0.96 to 1.00), demonstrating an «illumination» effect rather than the substitution of informality. Profound regional differentiation was recorded, ranging from the dominance of informal employment in the republics of the North Caucasus to minimal values in the Arctic territories. The necessity of transitioning from a «suppression» policy to an «embedding» policy for new forms of employment into the system of social and labour guarantees is substantiated. The findings can be used to adjust regional employment policies.

KEYWORDS

informal employment, precarization of labor, platform employment, self-employment, freelancing, regions of RF, unemployment

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The article was prepared based on research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Alexander L. Safonov

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Research Worker, the Institute of Regional Economics and Interbudgetary Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Daria V. Nekipelova

PhD in Economics, Senior Research Worker, the Institute of Regional Economics and Interbudgetary Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

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