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DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

TITLE

Quality of Life of the Population and Fertility as Factors of Spatial Development in the Tambov Region

Elena Yu. Merkulova

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RAR (Research Article Report)

JEL J13, R23

https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_9_302_318

AUTHOR

Elena Yu. Merkulova

Tambov State University named after G.R. Derzhavin, Tambov, Russia

E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1044-0053

SPIN-code: 8509-2211

ResearcherID: AAP-3278-2021

Scopus Author ID: 57195720953

FOR CITATION

Merkulova E.Yu. Quality of Life of the Population and Fertility as Factors of Spatial Development in the Tambov Region. Uroven' Zhizni Naseleniya Regionov Rossii=Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2026;22(2):302–318. https://doi.org/10.52180/1999-9836_2026_22_2_9_302_318 (In Russ.)

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study is to identify the determinants of fertility, taking into account assessments of the quality of life of the population, and to develop a typology of municipalities for a differentiated demographic policy. The theoretical framework is based on a synthesis of the concepts of demographic transition, the economic theory of fertility, and spatial demography. The methodology includes factor analysis (principal component method), hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward’s method), spatial analysis (Moran’s index), and multiple regression controlling for age structure. The empirical base consists of official statistical data on 30 municipal districts of the Tambov region and the results of the author’s sociological survey (n = 2,657, October 2024, CAWI method). Age stratification of the sample made it possible to identify three cognitive groups: «migrant optimists» (under 30 years, 39.4%), «stabilizers» (30–45 years, 26.1%), and «localists» (over 45 years, 34.5%). Factor analysis identified three latent dimensions of quality of life: assessment of the place of residence and its development prospects (39.6% of variance), infrastructure and living environment (27.8%), and satisfaction with medical services (10.0%). The regression model (R² = 0.789; F(3,26) = 32.31; p < 0.001) showed the dominant influence of the share of the population below working age (β = 0.558; p < 0.001) and the crude marriage rate (β = 0.557; p < 0.001). A paradoxical effect of housing conditions was revealed: an increase in housing space per capita is associated with a decline in fertility (β = −0.218; p = 0.028), interpreted as an indicator of depopulation. Subjective factors exert an indirect influence through migration intentions and marital behavior. Cluster analysis identified four types of territories: demographically stable, aging with development potential, territories of contrasts, and demographically depressed. Spatial analysis revealed local effects: a «hot spot» around the regional center and «cold spots» on the periphery. The practical significance lies in substantiating the transition from a universal to a differentiated demographic policy that takes into account the typology of territories and age-specific differences in assessments of the quality of life of the population. The developed toolkit can be adapted for studying other regions.

KEYWORDS

quality of life of the population, fertility, spatial development, municipal districts, factor analysis, cluster analysis, regression modeling, territorial typology, demographic policy, Tambov region

INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Elena Yu. Merkulova

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Director of the Center for Spatial Development of Territories and Quality of Life of the Population, Derzhavin Tambov State University.

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